The favourite on Polymarket is December 31, 2029 at 22%, followed by December 31, 2028 at 16% and December 31, 2027 at 8%.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2029 | 22% | +2.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $23k |
| December 31, 2028 | 16% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $5k |
| December 31, 2027 | 8% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $9k |
A price of 22% means traders pay $0.23 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| dromedaryy | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $52k | −$5k |
| dromedaryy | December 31, 2028 · Yes | $23k | −$2k |
| waterwaterwater | December 31, 2028 · No | $17k | +$67k |
| waterwaterwater | December 31, 2027 · No | $10k | +$109k |
| feeder-of-markets | December 31, 2027 · No | $8k | +$86k |
| dromedaryy | December 31, 2029 · Yes | $7k | −$328 |
| MEPP | December 31, 2027 · No | $7k | +$78k |
| Car | December 31, 2029 · No | $6k | +$14k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.