The favourite on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 87%, followed by December 15, 2026 at 85% and November 30, 2026 at 78%.
November 20, 2026 moved the most this week: 55% to 46% (−8.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 87% | +14.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $227k |
| December 15, 2026 | 85% | +17.0 pts | +3.5 pts | $64k |
| November 30, 2026 | 78% | +20.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $143k |
| November 25, 2026 | 72% | +25.5 pts | 0.0 pts | $28k |
| November 20, 2026 | 46% | +6.5 pts | −8.0 pts | $40k |
A price of 87% means traders pay $0.87 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| occasionalAwareness | December 31, 2026 · No | $46k | −$39k |
| lpm1777 | December 31, 2026 · No | $29k | −$21k |
| 0x91c3…409f | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $28k | −$981 |
| ThisAgain | December 31, 2026 · No | $26k | −$18k |
| thoodr | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $19k | −$373 |
| Erasmus. | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $18k | +$957 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $17k | −$264 |
| BigMackyG | December 31, 2026 · No | $17k | −$13k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.