The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 68%, followed by Spread -5.5 at 52% and Spread -6.5 at 48%.
Spread -13.5 moved the most this week: 50% to 32% (−17.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | −1.0 pts | +7.5 pts | $27k |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% | −1.5 pts | +1.5 pts | $5k |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% | −2.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $17k |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% | −1.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $11k |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% | +1.0 pts | −17.5 pts | $826 |
A price of 68% means traders pay $0.68 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| FeedTheBigBird | Yes · No | $17k | −$9k |
| Multicoloured-Serf | Yes · Yes | $11k | +$79 |
| FeedTheBigBird | Spread -6.5 · No | $6k | +$522 |
| lightotunnel35 | Spread -7.5 · No | $3k | +$1k |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -6.5 · Yes | $2k | +$23 |
| CAcap | Yes · Yes | $2k | +$15 |
| purplegatto | Spread -5.5 · Yes | $2k | −$44 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -5.5 · No | $2k | −$124 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.