The favourite on Polymarket is Spread -0.5 at 70%, followed by Spread -5.5 at 57% and Spread -6.5 at 56%.
Spread -0.5 moved the most this week: 50% to 70% (+20.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 70% | −0.5 pts | +20.5 pts | $4k |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% | −0.5 pts | +7.5 pts | $24k |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% | −0.5 pts | +5.5 pts | $27k |
| Spread -7.5 | 48% | −0.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $64k |
| Yes | 30% | +1.0 pts | −10.5 pts | $53k |
A price of 48% means traders pay $0.47 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Spread -7.5 · Yes | $29k | −$384 |
| sinasinner | Spread -7.5 · No | $14k | +$2k |
| bands1 | Spread -6.5 · Yes | $14k | +$126 |
| kc35831562 | Spread -6.5 · No | $12k | −$2k |
| 0x418d…88a3 | Spread -5.5 · Yes | $11k | +$1k |
| mooseborzoi | Spread -7.5 · No | $7k | +$860 |
| lpcapital1 | Spread -5.5 · No | $5k | −$693 |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7 | Yes · No | $5k | +$6k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.