The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 56%, followed by Spread -2.5 at 50% and Spread -1.5 at 43%.
Spread -14.5 moved the most this week: 50% to 18% (−31.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | +2.0 pts | +6.5 pts | $306k |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% | +2.0 pts | +0.5 pts | $1k |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% | −1.5 pts | −7.0 pts | $2k |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% | +1.0 pts | −29.0 pts | $1k |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% | +1.0 pts | −31.5 pts | $1k |
A price of 56% means traders pay $0.56 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| bbbetk | Yes · Yes | $99k | −$525 |
| Vladislavkh | Yes · Yes | $59k | −$922 |
| Multicoloured-Serf | Yes · No | $41k | −$9k |
| nigiri99 | Yes · No | $26k | −$6k |
| hi774c | Yes · No | $17k | −$4k |
| 6512395314597884 | Yes · No | $9k | −$2k |
| VeryLucky888 | Yes · No | $7k | −$2k |
| 0x9f15…bdb3 | Yes · No | $6k | −$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.