The favourite on Polymarket is 260-279 at 22%, followed by 300-319 at 18% and 240-259 at 11%.
260-279 moved the most this week: 12% to 22% (+10.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 22% | +7.2 pts | +10.3 pts | $35k |
| 300-319 | 18% | +8.2 pts | +6.0 pts | $34k |
| 240-259 | 11% | −5.1 pts | −0.2 pts | $31k |
| 220-239 | 4% | −11.1 pts | −2.2 pts | $35k |
| 200-219 | 2% | −8.1 pts | −4.3 pts | $46k |
A price of 2% means traders pay $0.02 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 260-279 · No | $8k | −$8k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 300-319 · No | $7k | −$7k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 240-259 · No | $4k | −$4k |
| Mei-ji | 260-279 · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 220-239 · No | $2k | −$2k |
| Mei-ji | 300-319 · Yes | $1k | +$1k |
| Mei-ji | 240-259 · Yes | $892 | +$590 |
| Elonurmom | 260-279 · Yes | $824 | −$8 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.