The favourite on Polymarket is No change at 74%, followed by 25 bps increase at 18% and 25 bps decrease at 4%.
25 bps increase moved the most this week: 25% to 18% (−6.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 74% | 0.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $58k |
| 25 bps increase | 18% | 0.0 pts | −6.5 pts | $80k |
| 25 bps decrease | 4% | −0.2 pts | +2.4 pts | $22k |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% | +0.6 pts | +0.8 pts | $19k |
A price of 18% means traders pay $0.18 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No change · No | $75k | −$75k |
| chunqiu | No change · Yes | $26k | +$4k |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | No change · Yes | $22k | +$5k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps increase · No | $19k | −$19k |
| charlatta | No change · Yes | $6k | +$416 |
| RememberAmalek | 25 bps increase · Yes | $5k | −$2k |
| CDAP1 | 25 bps increase · Yes | $5k | −$4k |
| pieped | No change · Yes | $4k | +$447 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.