The favourite on Polymarket is November 10 at 42%, followed by November 11 at 24% and November 12 at 8%.
November 10 moved the most this week: 28% to 42% (+14.7 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 | 42% | +8.0 pts | +14.7 pts | $66k |
| November 11 | 24% | −1.2 pts | +1.2 pts | $25k |
| November 12 | 8% | −3.2 pts | +4.9 pts | $4k |
| November 17 | 3% | +1.6 pts | −3.7 pts | $1k |
| November 13 | 2% | 0.0 pts | −1.1 pts | $5k |
A price of 42% means traders pay $0.42 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | November 10 · No | $2k | −$2k |
| 0x9941e...5C52f7B | November 10 · Yes | $2k | −$277 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | November 11 · No | $1k | −$1k |
| WEN-ALPHA | November 10 · No | $974 | +$74 |
| GotGreenWood | November 10 · No | $967 | +$464 |
| zzmb0 | November 10 · Yes | $920 | +$319 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | November 10 · Yes | $768 | +$161 |
| infinitevanilla | November 10 · Yes | $697 | −$319 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.