The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 97%, followed by November 30 at 84% and November 15 at 57%.
November 9 moved the most this week: 64% to 7% (−56.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 97% | −1.8 pts | +19.3 pts | $64k |
| November 30 | 84% | +0.7 pts | +24.0 pts | $43k |
| November 15 | 57% | −4.5 pts | +26.5 pts | $52k |
| November 13 | 48% | −11.0 pts | −23.5 pts | $22k |
| November 9 | 7% | −8.5 pts | −56.5 pts | $21k |
A price of 97% means traders pay $0.97 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xef97…ab2c | December 31 · Yes | $26k | +$139 |
| thoodr | December 31 · Yes | $21k | +$1k |
| dedidanc | December 31 · No | $18k | −$17k |
| 0x36da…907b | November 30 · Yes | $5k | −$154 |
| rewardbots | November 30 · No | $3k | −$3k |
| WEN-ALPHA | November 15 · No | $2k | −$783 |
| flexibleagedbeef | November 15 · No | $2k | +$433 |
| ICTRADING | December 31 · Yes | $2k | +$15 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.