The favourite on Polymarket is November 12 at 35%, followed by No release by November 30 at 15% and November 9 at 4%.
November 7 moved the most this week: 43% to 1% (−42.2 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 | 35% | +14.1 pts | −7.1 pts | $14k |
| No release by November 30 | 15% | −3.1 pts | −18.0 pts | $18k |
| November 9 | 4% | −0.9 pts | −39.9 pts | $8k |
| November 10 | 4% | −0.2 pts | −40.3 pts | $4k |
| November 7 | 1% | −2.2 pts | −42.2 pts | $4k |
A price of 15% means traders pay $0.15 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | November 12 · No | $792 | −$792 |
| GotGreenWood | No release by November 30 · Yes | $602 | −$99 |
| GotGreenWood | November 12 · No | $496 | +$615 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No release by November 30 · No | $342 | −$342 |
| Martinus- | November 12 · No | $283 | +$331 |
| 0x122c…fbed | No release by November 30 · No | $250 | +$1k |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No release by November 30 · No | $214 | +$961 |
| Martinus- | No release by November 30 · No | $106 | +$479 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.