The favourite on Polymarket is 4°C at 48%, followed by 5°C at 28% and 3°C at 20%.
2°C moved the most this week: 30% to 3% (−26.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4°C | 48% | +16.0 pts | +18.5 pts | $1k |
| 5°C | 28% | −2.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $3k |
| 3°C | 20% | −9.5 pts | −9.5 pts | $2k |
| 2°C | 3% | −26.3 pts | −26.3 pts | $1k |
A price of 28% means traders pay $0.28 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 5°C · No | $214 | −$214 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3°C · No | $157 | −$157 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2°C · No | $24 | −$24 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.