The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 70%, followed by October 31 at 55%.
October 31 moved the most this week: 3% to 55% (+51.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 70% | +4.5 pts | +48.5 pts | $36k |
| October 31 | 55% | +7.0 pts | +51.6 pts | $88k |
A price of 55% means traders pay $0.55 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raskell | October 31 · Yes | $13k | +$3k |
| pIebe | October 31 · No | $11k | +$484 |
| 0x91c3…409f | October 31 · No | $10k | −$3k |
| Raskell | December 31 · Yes | $10k | +$2k |
| paddaa | October 31 · Yes | $6k | −$404 |
| ELICHOU | December 31 · No | $4k | −$938 |
| yen4u | October 31 · Yes | $4k | −$435 |
| anoin123 | December 31 · No | $3k | −$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.