The favourite on Polymarket is Below 4.50% at 55%, followed by Below 4.45% at 46% and Below 4.25% at 17%.
Below 4.45% moved the most this week: 38% to 46% (+9.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.50% | 55% | +0.5 pts | +5.0 pts | $1k |
| Below 4.45% | 46% | −4.5 pts | +9.0 pts | $3k |
| Below 4.25% | 17% | −0.7 pts | +8.1 pts | $6k |
| Below 4.35% | 16% | −6.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $3k |
| Below 4.00% | 4% | 0.0 pts | +1.8 pts | $0 |
A price of 17% means traders pay $0.17 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stonktrader | Below 4.50% · Yes | $2k | +$860 |
| commeowder | Below 4.45% · No | $1k | +$1k |
| Stonktrader | Below 4.45% · Yes | $1k | +$687 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Below 4.35% · No | $1k | +$4k |
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | Below 4.50% · No | $936 | +$201 |
| nj23adsknml3 | Below 4.25% · Yes | $662 | +$238 |
| 0xe617…f251 | Below 4.45% · No | $617 | +$395 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Below 4.25% · No | $265 | +$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.