The favourite on Polymarket is 2 (50 bps) at 76%, followed by 1 (25 bps) at 22%.
2 (50 bps) moved the most this week: 70% to 76% (+5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 76% | +8.0 pts | +5.0 pts | $26k |
| 1 (25 bps) | 22% | −9.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $69k |
A price of 22% means traders pay $0.23 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2 (50 bps) · No | $56k | −$56k |
| simpleman | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $17k | +$4k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1 (25 bps) · No | $17k | −$17k |
| chunqiu | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $8k | +$571 |
| 0x39aa…583c | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $6k | +$286 |
| AlexiosV | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $6k | +$4k |
| oral.kite5633 | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $4k | +$290 |
| 0x5b91…2709 | 2 (50 bps) · Yes | $4k | +$731 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.