The favourite on Polymarket is $75B to $85B at 39%, followed by $65B to $75B at 21% and $95B to $105B at 15%.
$75B to $85B moved the most this week: 1% to 39% (+37.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75B to $85B | 39% | −5.8 pts | +37.8 pts | $21k |
| $65B to $75B | 21% | +6.0 pts | +19.2 pts | $7k |
| $95B to $105B | 15% | −0.6 pts | −31.2 pts | $19k |
| $85B to $95B | 14% | −1.8 pts | −10.7 pts | $35k |
| $105B to $115B | 1% | 0.0 pts | −16.1 pts | $5k |
A price of 14% means traders pay $0.14 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $75B to $85B · No | $2k | −$2k |
| SnapElectionAvoider | $75B to $85B · Yes | $1k | +$739 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $65B to $75B · No | $950 | −$950 |
| DancewithRisk | $75B to $85B · Yes | $949 | +$222 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $95B to $105B · No | $694 | −$694 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $85B to $95B · No | $634 | −$634 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | $65B to $75B · Yes | $535 | +$256 |
| 0x49F206 | $85B to $95B · No | $348 | +$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.