The favourite on Polymarket is November 7 at 98%, followed by November 15 at 83% and November 30 at 66%.
November 7 moved the most this week: 78% to 98% (+19.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 7 | 98% | +2.6 pts | +19.4 pts | $1.5M |
| November 15 | 83% | +3.5 pts | +18.0 pts | $822k |
| November 30 | 66% | +3.5 pts | +12.0 pts | $325k |
| December 15 | 55% | +2.0 pts | +9.5 pts | $329k |
| December 31 | 48% | +1.0 pts | +9.0 pts | $503k |
A price of 98% means traders pay $0.98 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votei14Voude22 | November 7 · Yes | $134k | +$3k |
| trumpfkiran | November 7 · No | $121k | −$115k |
| LulaVaiPerder | November 7 · Yes | $79k | +$2k |
| MissaoComFlavio | November 7 · Yes | $78k | +$2k |
| qronnie12 | November 15 · No | $55k | −$40k |
| Sofiamas | November 7 · No | $47k | −$45k |
| 65765757 | November 7 · Yes | $39k | +$1k |
| Trimbowl777888 | November 7 · No | $36k | −$34k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.