The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 31%, followed by November 30 at 20%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 51% to 20% (−31.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 31% | +2.5 pts | +2.0 pts | $76k |
| November 30 | 20% | +4.5 pts | −31.0 pts | $49k |
A price of 31% means traders pay $0.31 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52centis | December 31 · Yes | $5k | +$493 |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | December 31 · No | $4k | +$6k |
| paddaa | December 31 · Yes | $2k | +$136 |
| Shaygai19121983 | November 30 · Yes | $2k | +$120 |
| deltasniper | December 31 · No | $1k | +$2k |
| Noname333 | December 31 · Yes | $1k | +$11 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31 · No | $977 | +$1k |
| RdogTest | December 31 · No | $956 | +$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.