The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 12%, followed by November 30 at 4% and November 15 at 2%.
December 31 moved the most this week: 16% to 12% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | −1.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $171k |
| November 30 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −3.7 pts | $28k |
| November 15 | 2% | +0.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $65k |
A price of 12% means traders pay $0.12 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | December 31 · Yes | $41k | −$38k |
| betwick | December 31 · Yes | $12k | −$14k |
| aenews2 | December 31 · Yes | $12k | −$9k |
| pereira12 | December 31 · No | $11k | +$59k |
| tetrose | December 31 · Yes | $9k | −$14k |
| thoodr | December 31 · No | $8k | +$52k |
| onekey02 | December 31 · No | $8k | +$44k |
| 0x16bb…8492 | December 31 · No | $7k | +$36k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.