The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 66%, followed by Spread -2.5 at 60% and Spread -4.5 at 54%.
Spread -2.5 moved the most this week: 46% to 60% (+13.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | +6.0 pts | +9.5 pts | $65k |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% | +13.5 pts | +13.5 pts | $4k |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% | +7.0 pts | +7.0 pts | $3k |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% | +4.0 pts | +4.0 pts | $3k |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% | −1.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $11k |
A price of 66% means traders pay $0.67 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6ac5…4b6e | Yes · No | $18k | −$6k |
| 0xf559…f462 | Spread -6.5 · No | $5k | +$1k |
| AmphibiousCaldwellPope | Yes · Yes | $3k | +$26 |
| dvcs | Yes · Yes | $3k | +$340 |
| 0xabf5…cfeb | Yes · Yes | $3k | +$297 |
| nigiri99 | Spread -2.5 · Yes | $2k | +$132 |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes · Yes | $2k | +$259 |
| AmphibiousCaldwellPope | Spread -5.5 · Yes | $2k | +$18 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.