The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 98%, followed by November 30 at 90% and November 19 at 70%.
November 9 moved the most this week: 46% to 25% (−21.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 98% | +3.2 pts | +4.8 pts | $14k |
| November 30 | 90% | +16.0 pts | +7.5 pts | $19k |
| November 19 | 70% | +15.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $20k |
| November 10 | 45% | +27.0 pts | −8.5 pts | $18k |
| November 9 | 25% | +18.5 pts | −21.5 pts | $15k |
A price of 70% means traders pay $0.70 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xec4b…5839 | December 31 · Yes | $9k | +$396 |
| 0xef97…ab2c | December 31 · Yes | $5k | +$166 |
| thoodr | December 31 · Yes | $5k | +$226 |
| Xeny | November 30 · Yes | $2k | +$371 |
| Nostrafakus | December 31 · Yes | $2k | +$28 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | December 31 · Yes | $2k | +$310 |
| IceFrosst | November 30 · Yes | $1k | +$145 |
| Loathsome-Investigation | December 31 · Yes | $1k | +$37 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.