The favourite on Polymarket is Christopher Luxon at 81%, followed by Chris Hipkins at 11%.
Chris Hipkins moved the most this week: 40% to 11% (−28.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 81% | +27.0 pts | +21.5 pts | $66k |
| Chris Hipkins | 11% | −35.0 pts | −28.5 pts | $69k |
A price of 11% means traders pay $0.11 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Christopher Luxon · No | $23k | −$23k |
| xnetic | Christopher Luxon · Yes | $10k | +$3k |
| mrworldwide | Christopher Luxon · Yes | $6k | −$41 |
| neutralwave23 | Christopher Luxon · Yes | $5k | +$1k |
| flawfence | Christopher Luxon · No | $4k | −$3k |
| leemr190324 | Christopher Luxon · Yes | $4k | +$672 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Chris Hipkins · No | $3k | −$3k |
| SunlineTicker | Christopher Luxon · Yes | $2k | +$788 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.