The favourite on Polymarket is Spread -3.5 at 72%, followed by Spread -9.5 at 50% and Spread -10.5 at 44%.
Spread -10.5 moved the most this week: 19% to 4% (−15.2 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -3.5 | 72% | −2.0 pts | +5.5 pts | $26k |
| Spread -9.5 | 50% | −3.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $32k |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% | −1.0 pts | +2.5 pts | $22k |
| Yes | 20% | 0.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $49k |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −15.2 pts | $16k |
A price of 20% means traders pay $0.20 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| takeormake | Spread -3.5 · No | $17k | −$10k |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | Spread -9.5 · Yes | $10k | −$526 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $10k | −$41 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -9.5 · No | $8k | −$128 |
| takeormake | Yes · Yes | $8k | +$213 |
| takeormake | Spread -10.5 · No | $6k | +$1k |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -10.5 · Yes | $6k | −$317 |
| RollAwayTheDew | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $5k | −$8 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.