The favourite on Polymarket is $100M at 39%, followed by $50M at 38% and $75M at 37%.
$50M moved the most this week: 40% to 38% (−2.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 39% | +4.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $6k |
| $50M | 38% | +1.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $873 |
| $75M | 37% | +2.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $398 |
| $200M | 25% | −2.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $91 |
| $250M | 20% | 0.0 pts | +0.5 pts | $327 |
A price of 39% means traders pay $0.39 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TwoEyes | $50M · No | $8k | −$461 |
| gatonekki | $50M · Yes | $5k | −$6k |
| gatonekki | $100M · Yes | $4k | −$3k |
| AllByMyseIf | $50M · No | $3k | +$1k |
| notssf3 | $50M · Yes | $3k | −$4k |
| BowTrix | $100M · No | $2k | −$666 |
| TwoEyes | $200M · No | $2k | +$5k |
| odsowner | $100M · No | $2k | +$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.