Traders on Polymarket see a 32% chance for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31”, down 4.5 points over the past week.
Over the past week the chance moved from 37% to 32% (−4.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | −9.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $939k |
A price of 32% means traders pay $0.33 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | $15k | −$7k |
| HorribleWork | Yes | $11k | +$216 |
| Serega-pro | No | $10k | +$8k |
| Pondermint | Yes | $10k | −$3k |
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | $9k | +$2k |
| peasant | Yes | $7k | +$1k |
| MEPP | No | $6k | +$5k |
| Fulgurator | Yes | $6k | −$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.