Traders on Polymarket see a 20% chance for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30”, down 4.0 points over the past week.
Over the past week the chance moved from 24% to 20% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | −3.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $539k |
A price of 20% means traders pay $0.20 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | $11k | −$8k |
| Pondermint | Yes | $5k | −$677 |
| guilttrip | Yes | $5k | −$4k |
| Natstar777 | Yes | $3k | −$2k |
| hugecaulk | Yes | $3k | −$2k |
| lug | No | $3k | +$7k |
| dips. | Yes | $3k | −$334 |
| MEPP | No | $2k | +$4k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.