The favourite on Polymarket is $50M at 99%, followed by $400M at 96% and $800M at 76%.
$800M moved the most this week: 82% to 76% (−6.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 99% | 0.0 pts | −0.8 pts | $22k |
| $400M | 96% | +0.3 pts | +0.6 pts | $22k |
| $800M | 76% | −3.0 pts | −6.0 pts | $22k |
| $1B | 50% | −5.3 pts | −4.4 pts | $27k |
| $1.5B | 25% | −5.0 pts | +0.3 pts | $18k |
A price of 50% means traders pay $0.50 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 999ssf | $400M · Yes | $55k | −$2k |
| alphaalii | $1B · Yes | $44k | −$1k |
| Nomorepredict | $50M · Yes | $36k | +$3k |
| alphaalii | $800M · Yes | $34k | +$15k |
| 999ssf | $50M · Yes | $34k | −$263 |
| aa9872aa | $400M · Yes | $30k | +$22k |
| one8tyfive | $400M · No | $24k | −$6k |
| rebotsliaf | $400M · No | $19k | −$17k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.