The favourite on Polymarket is $50M at 88%, followed by $100M at 84% and $200M at 68%.
$50M moved the most this week: 18% to 88% (+69.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 88% | +35.0 pts | +69.5 pts | $40k |
| $100M | 84% | +42.0 pts | +65.0 pts | $76k |
| $200M | 68% | +44.5 pts | +55.0 pts | $23k |
| $300M | 32% | +22.8 pts | +26.3 pts | $7k |
| $400M | 29% | +24.0 pts | +23.2 pts | $15k |
A price of 84% means traders pay $0.83 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| viberefllex | $50M · No | $28k | −$17k |
| gydmasg | $200M · No | $16k | +$3k |
| themostrekt | $100M · Yes | $10k | −$303 |
| sansui1 | $100M · No | $9k | −$2k |
| NeverYES | $100M · No | $9k | −$2k |
| hose | $100M · No | $9k | −$741 |
| 83offwrf | $200M · No | $6k | +$2k |
| CRIME-IS-LEGAL | $100M · No | $6k | −$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.