Traders on Polymarket see a 10% chance for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31”, down 2.0 points over the past week.
Over the past week the chance moved from 12% to 10% (−2.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | −0.5 pts | −2.0 pts | $919k |
A price of 10% means traders pay $0.10 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump2028 | No | $18k | +$100k |
| pIebe | Yes | $12k | −$23k |
| RememberAmalek | No | $11k | +$24k |
| 0xce1d…1b9b | Yes | $11k | −$69k |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | Yes | $9k | −$2k |
| SlenderMan | No | $9k | +$76k |
| 0x0c0e…434e | No | $9k | +$77k |
| Marks1000 | Yes | $9k | −$39k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.