The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 10%, followed by November 30 at 3%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 12% to 3% (−8.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | 0.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $283k |
| November 30 | 3% | −0.6 pts | −8.3 pts | $230k |
A price of 10% means traders pay $0.10 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e…434e | December 31 · No | $51k | +$421k |
| wan123 | December 31 · Yes | $26k | −$584 |
| pilimili | December 31 · No | $14k | +$114k |
| shuanyang | December 31 · Yes | $6k | −$6k |
| Trump2028 | December 31 · No | $5k | +$39k |
| tryingmyluckhere | December 31 · Yes | $4k | −$5k |
| hopedieslast | December 31 · No | $4k | +$33k |
| 0xce1d…1b9b | December 31 · Yes | $4k | −$16k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.