The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 36%, followed by November 30 at 17%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 31% to 17% (−14.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 36% | −0.5 pts | +0.5 pts | $291k |
| November 30 | 17% | −1.5 pts | −14.0 pts | $331k |
A price of 17% means traders pay $0.17 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa | November 30 · Yes | $6k | −$1k |
| paddaa | December 31 · Yes | $6k | −$188 |
| Ornicar | November 30 · No | $5k | +$19k |
| Monopoly_Money | December 31 · No | $4k | +$3k |
| anoin123 | November 30 · No | $2k | +$8k |
| Valen9 | December 31 · Yes | $2k | −$225 |
| KrackenSruster | December 31 · No | $2k | +$1k |
| Valen9 | November 30 · Yes | $2k | −$394 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.