The favourite on Polymarket is $100M at 97%, followed by $500M at 86% and $800M at 72%.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 97% | −0.4 pts | −0.8 pts | $4k |
| $500M | 86% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $9k |
| $800M | 72% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $4k |
| $1B | 56% | +0.5 pts | +1.0 pts | $60k |
| $3B | 14% | −0.5 pts | +0.7 pts | $4k |
A price of 56% means traders pay $0.56 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premarbet618 | $1B · No | $71k | −$28k |
| AllByMyseIf | $500M · No | $29k | −$23k |
| 0x99f6…37fc | $500M · No | $26k | −$17k |
| ASteroide | $500M · Yes | $24k | +$1k |
| AllByMyseIf | $800M · No | $18k | −$11k |
| gatonekki | $1B · No | $18k | −$5k |
| hose | $500M · Yes | $17k | +$3k |
| sansui1 | $500M · No | $17k | −$13k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.