The favourite on Polymarket is November 9–November 15 at 80%, followed by November 16–November 22 at 17% and November 23–November 29 at 2%.
November 9–November 15 moved the most this week: 72% to 80% (+9.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 80% | +4.0 pts | +9.0 pts | $97k |
| November 16–November 22 | 17% | +4.7 pts | +4.4 pts | $20k |
| November 23–November 29 | 2% | −1.6 pts | −1.8 pts | $6k |
| November 30–December 6 | 1% | −1.6 pts | −1.2 pts | $4k |
A price of 80% means traders pay $0.81 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| WEN-ALPHA | November 9–November 15 · No | $4k | −$2k |
| balthazar | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $4k | +$525 |
| hell0pia | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $4k | +$962 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | November 9–November 15 · No | $3k | −$3k |
| Neumann97 | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $3k | +$57 |
| 0x9941e...5C52f7B | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $2k | +$440 |
| EdgePunting | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $1k | +$69 |
| Martinus- | November 9–November 15 · Yes | $1k | +$148 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.