The favourite on Polymarket is National + ACT + NZF at 73%, followed by Labour + Green at 12% and Labour + Green + Maori at 7%.
Labour + Green + Maori moved the most this week: 25% to 7% (−17.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National + ACT + NZF | 73% | +23.5 pts | +16.5 pts | $20k |
| Labour + Green | 12% | −14.8 pts | −2.5 pts | $25k |
| Labour + Green + Maori | 7% | −8.3 pts | −17.8 pts | $12k |
| Other | 3% | −2.5 pts | −2.6 pts | $19k |
A price of 12% means traders pay $0.12 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | National + ACT + NZF · Yes | $3k | +$1k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | National + ACT + NZF · No | $3k | −$3k |
| vinii | National + ACT + NZF · No | $2k | −$678 |
| flatbarrel | National + ACT + NZF · Yes | $834 | −$4 |
| anoin123 | Labour + Green · Yes | $716 | −$658 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Labour + Green · No | $592 | −$592 |
| 1walrus | National + ACT + NZF · Yes | $566 | +$204 |
| 1walrus | Labour + Green · Yes | $548 | −$241 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.