The favourite on Polymarket is Jared Kushner at 42%, followed by Abbas Araghchi at 42% and Steve Witkoff at 40%.
Steve Witkoff moved the most this week: 44% to 40% (−4.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Kushner | 42% | +4.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $4k |
| Abbas Araghchi | 42% | +3.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $3k |
| Steve Witkoff | 40% | +2.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $107k |
| J.D. Vance | 30% | +0.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $2k |
| Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | 30% | +1.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $2k |
A price of 40% means traders pay $0.40 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| chabeiquan | Steve Witkoff · Yes | $7k | +$174 |
| kemuyi | Steve Witkoff · Yes | $6k | +$159 |
| xingshi | Steve Witkoff · No | $5k | +$3k |
| gouzi | Steve Witkoff · No | $4k | +$2k |
| qipilang | Steve Witkoff · No | $4k | +$2k |
| smellyEllie | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani · Yes | $786 | +$138 |
| nonkenny90 | J.D. Vance · No | $753 | +$1k |
| 0x2132…7657 | Jared Kushner · No | $662 | +$273 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.