The favourite on Polymarket is Friedrich Merz at 94%, followed by Mark Carney at 93% and Emmanuel Macron at 70%.
Friedrich Merz moved the most this week: 50% to 94% (+45.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz | 94% | +3.0 pts | +45.0 pts | $10k |
| Mark Carney | 93% | −0.9 pts | +27.7 pts | $22k |
| Emmanuel Macron | 70% | +12.5 pts | +17.0 pts | $51k |
| Lula da Silva | 48% | −4.5 pts | −1.5 pts | $12k |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 32% | −7.5 pts | −15.5 pts | $10k |
A price of 70% means traders pay $0.69 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| brightly | Emmanuel Macron · No | $10k | −$4k |
| wandou | Emmanuel Macron · Yes | $5k | +$972 |
| yintxwz | Emmanuel Macron · Yes | $5k | +$918 |
| yintxwz | Lula da Silva · Yes | $4k | +$84 |
| angenia | Lula da Silva · No | $4k | +$420 |
| nimble-mellow-comet | Mark Carney · Yes | $2k | +$106 |
| Car | Mark Carney · Yes | $2k | −$51 |
| ENORMOUZ | Friedrich Merz · Yes | $1k | +$100 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.