Traders on Polymarket see a 10% chance for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027”, down 7.0 points over the past week.
Over the past week the chance moved from 18% to 10% (−7.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | −1.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $2.3M |
A price of 10% means traders pay $0.10 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheQuietRisk | Yes | $111k | −$137k |
| xm39 | Yes | $97k | −$70k |
| SecondWindCapital | Yes | $55k | −$126k |
| onepingonly | Yes | $42k | −$75k |
| 0xad96…d498 | No | $35k | +$244k |
| denizz | No | $29k | +$173k |
| Kryptogram | Yes | $26k | −$24k |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | $22k | −$19k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.