As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Winner at 60%, Spread -2.5 at 57% and Spread -3.5 at 48%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -2.5 moved the most this week: 41% to 57% (+16.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 60% | 0.0 pts | +6.5 pts | $1.4M |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% | +2.5 pts | +16.0 pts | $300k |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% | +2.5 pts | +5.5 pts | $201k |
| O/U 38.5 | 46% | −3.0 pts | −13.0 pts | $374k |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% | +2.0 pts | +6.0 pts | $196k |
A price of 60% means traders pay about $0.60 for a “Winner” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2c33…0563 | Winner · Yes | $252k | +$10k |
| Sassy-Bucket | Winner · Yes | $242k | +$3k |
| BreakTheBank | O/U 38.5 · No | $211k | −$2k |
| Kch-Temp | Winner · No | $208k | −$11k |
| Sassy-Bucket | O/U 38.5 · Yes | $186k | −$960 |
| BreakTheBank | Winner · Yes | $161k | +$3k |
| Kch-Temp | O/U 38.5 · No | $112k | −$376 |
| 0x0d6a…aa98 | Winner · No | $101k | −$4k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Sports · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.