As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Spread -4.5 at 54%, O/U 220.5 at 50% and O/U 221.5 at 48%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -4.5 moved the most this week: 47% to 54% (+6.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -4.5 | 54% | +6.5 pts | +6.5 pts | $17k |
| O/U 220.5 | 50% | −1.5 pts | −1.5 pts | $16k |
| O/U 221.5 | 48% | −2.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $11k |
| O/U 222.5 | 46% | −4.5 pts | −4.5 pts | $11k |
| Winner | 36% | −10.0 pts | −6.5 pts | $107k |
A price of 54% means traders pay about $0.54 for a “Spread -4.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| HomeRunHazard | Winner · No | $8k | +$187 |
| nehcnehc | O/U 220.5 · No | $5k | −$116 |
| nehcnehc | Spread -4.5 · No | $5k | −$161 |
| nigiri99 | O/U 222.5 · No | $4k | +$91 |
| JoeyAroyyOO | Winner · Yes | $3k | −$237 |
| nigiri99 | O/U 221.5 · No | $3k | +$75 |
| NiK0k0k0k | Spread -4.5 · Yes | $3k | −$5 |
| nigiri99 | O/U 220.5 · No | $3k | +$12 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.