As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Spread -2.5 at 58%, O/U 44.5 at 52% and Spread -3.5 at 48%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -2.5 moved the most this week: 51% to 58% (+7.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -2.5 | 58% | +2.0 pts | +7.5 pts | $11k |
| O/U 44.5 | 52% | 0.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $48k |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% | 0.0 pts | +6.0 pts | $190k |
| O/U 46.5 | 44% | +1.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $19k |
| Winner | 38% | −1.0 pts | −6.5 pts | $74k |
A price of 58% means traders pay about $0.58 for a “Spread -2.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| R2D2RS | Spread -3.5 · No | $38k | −$890 |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Winner · No | $26k | −$83 |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | Spread -3.5 · No | $22k | +$8 |
| 0x3dfb…abaf | O/U 44.5 · Yes | $21k | +$205 |
| gmpm2 | O/U 44.5 · No | $17k | −$428 |
| hi774c | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $12k | +$131 |
| sinasinner | Spread -3.5 · No | $12k | −$26 |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $10k | −$262 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.