As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Winner at 66%, Spread -3.5 at 54% and Spread -4.5 at 50%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -4.5 moved the most this week: 60% to 50% (−10.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 66% | −1.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $311k |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% | −0.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $49k |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% | 0.0 pts | −10.0 pts | $202k |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% | +2.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $97k |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $53k |
A price of 66% means traders pay about $0.66 for a “Winner” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| gmpm2 | Winner · Yes | $148k | −$5k |
| 0xbc43…96d3 | Winner · No | $55k | +$2k |
| Kch-Temp | Spread -4.5 · No | $50k | −$1k |
| SuitableName | Spread -4.5 · Yes | $40k | +$408 |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | O/U 48.5 · No | $35k | −$1k |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Winner · Yes | $33k | −$1k |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | Winner · No | $31k | +$1k |
| R2D2RS | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $30k | +$143 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Sports · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.