As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are O/U 4.5 at 88%, O/U 6.5 at 57% and Winner at 48%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
O/U 4.5 moved the most this week: 82% to 88% (+6.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 4.5 | 88% | +0.5 pts | +6.0 pts | $74 |
| O/U 6.5 | 57% | +3.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $258 |
| Winner | 48% | +1.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $52k |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $27 |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% | +3.0 pts | +3.0 pts | $12k |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for a “O/U 4.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| chubbytoro | Winner · Yes | $19k | +$95 |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Winner · No | $12k | −$389 |
| mooseborzoi | Winner · Yes | $4k | −$51 |
| CAcap | Spread -1.5 · No | $3k | −$49 |
| roldy | Winner · No | $3k | −$30 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -1.5 · No | $3k | −$36 |
| AnonymousUsername | Winner · No | $3k | −$28 |
| chubbytoro | Spread -1.5 · Yes | $2k | −$5 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.