As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 16% by 31 December, 48% by 15 January 2027 and 80% by 31 January 2027.
The 31 January 2027 line moved the most this week: 67% to 80% (+12.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 16% | +2.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $23k |
| 15 January 2027 | 48% | −3.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $10k |
| 31 January 2027 | 80% | −3.5 pts | +12.5 pts | $12k |
A price of 80% means traders pay about $0.80 for the 31 January 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| plumbis | December 31, 2026 · No | $10k | +$1k |
| DiaMat | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$548 |
| knrad | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$208 |
| whig | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$1k |
| iHaveBeenPwned | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | −$60 |
| MinevaJ | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $5k | −$4k |
| xxNyx | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$170 |
| ProfLucio | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$347 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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