The deadline passed on 8 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is National Party at 98%, followed by Labour Party at 2%.
National Party moved the most this week: 71% to 98% (+27.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 98% | −0.5 pts | +27.1 pts | $390k |
| Labour Party | 2% | +0.2 pts | −20.9 pts | $289k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a “National Party” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Labour Party · No | $63k | – |
| JJo | National Party · Yes | $46k | +$462 |
| 0x4488…e319 | National Party · Yes | $17k | +$2k |
| 0x4488…e319 | Labour Party · No | $14k | +$1k |
| mrworldwide | Labour Party · No | $13k | +$2k |
| anoin123 | National Party · Yes | $12k | +$4k |
| anoin123 | Labour Party · No | $10k | +$3k |
| seal7 | National Party · Yes | $9k | +$3k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.