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Politics

Politics prediction markets: odds today

Elections, nominations, parliaments and the people in government, priced by traders on Polymarket. As of 8 November 2026: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028, J.D. Vance 32%, Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028, Jon Ossoff 26% and Presidential Election Winner 2028, JD Vance 18%.

44 markets on the map, sorted by money traded this week. Nimb’s categories are its own and do not always match Polymarket’s; how categories work.

MarketLeadingChance7 daysTraded, 7 days
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance32%−6.0 pts$11.3M
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Jon Ossoff26%+10.6 pts$11.1M
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)None98%+72.9 pts$9.8M
Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance18%−0.5 pts$9.2M
Mississippi Senate Election WinnerScott Colom (D)99%+87.1 pts$5.7M
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola (D)98%+24.7 pts$5.5M
Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an66%0.0 pts$1.5M
NC-03 House Election WinnerRaymond Smith Jr. (D)87%+42.2 pts$1.1M
Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?260-27936%+30.4 pts$809k
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes98%+90.8 pts$786k
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes35%+15.5 pts$732k
New Zealand legislative election winner?National Party98%+27.1 pts$679k
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Pete Hegseth42%+8.0 pts$626k
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes1%−22.5 pts$596k
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes99%+72.9 pts$595k
Texas Senate Election Margin of VictoryTalarico 12%+94%+92.2 pts$409k
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Alberto Núñez Feijóo90%+5.0 pts$408k
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by …June 30, 202718%−23.0 pts$396k
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Yes98%+39.9 pts$312k
Next Press Secretary announced by …December 3172%+7.0 pts$296k
Next Press Secretary?Anna Kelly12%−6.5 pts$260k
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryDemocrats 14-16%72%+67.5 pts$232k
Pete Hegseth impeached by …June 30, 202775%+5.5 pts$227k
Next Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer92%+31.0 pts$223k
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Democratic68%+2.0 pts$184k
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerJavier Milei44%+1.0 pts$175k
CA-23 House Election WinnerJay Obernolte (R)97%−0.3 pts$168k
Will Trump be impeached by …December 31, 202756%−15.5 pts$160k
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?Christopher Luxon86%+27.0 pts$156k
Ljubljana Mayoral Election WinnerZoran Janković62%−6.5 pts$102k
Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?M + KD + L + C46%+38.9 pts$82k
2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Other (including Ossof)70%+65.8 pts$74k
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?Pete Buttigieg97%+14.3 pts$66k
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes100%+11.1 pts$60k
Taichung Mayor Election WinnerJohnny Chiang80%−4.0 pts$57k
Next Serbia Presidential Election WinnerRadomir Saičić74%−13.0 pts$57k
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?80-9923%+21.8 pts$53k
Trump declassifies new UFO files by …December 3179%−15.4 pts$37k
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes16%−2.0 pts$30k
Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?President45%−16.0 pts$15k
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Yes14%−10.0 pts$9k
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?June 30, 202734%−3.0 pts$7k
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Yes24%−12.5 pts$5k
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Yes8%−3.0 pts$4k

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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.