As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 8% chance for “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide”, down from 12% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 32% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 0.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $4k |
A price of 8% means traders pay about $0.08 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | $29k | +$10k |
| placerv2 | No | $5k | +$2k |
| 0x5ecd…0787 | No | $4k | +$978 |
| 0x49f2…d7b4 | No | $4k | +$1k |
| 0x2282…73e8 | No | $2k | +$107 |
| neetbets | No | $2k | +$692 |
| ansatz | No | $915 | +$330 |
| KoloJones | Yes | $894 | −$4k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.