As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 14% chance for “Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026”, down from 24% a week ago.
It moved +2.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 43% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | +2.0 pts | −10.0 pts | $9k |
A price of 14% means traders pay about $0.14 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | No | $9k | +$765 |
| JPLP | No | $3k | +$296 |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | $2k | +$56 |
| 0x8333…ef3e | No | $1k | −$47 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | $1k | −$607 |
| Olcan | No | $916 | +$138 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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