As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 24% chance for “Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31”, down from 37% a week ago.
It moved +3.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 50% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | +3.0 pts | −12.5 pts | $5k |
A price of 24% means traders pay about $0.24 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | No | $16k | +$2k |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | $6k | +$125 |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | $6k | +$743 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | $6k | −$2k |
| truthteller | Yes | $3k | −$680 |
| DerDon | No | $2k | +$397 |
| 0xd8d5…8935 | No | $2k | +$191 |
| pykue | No | $1k | −$3 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.