The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Jay Obernolte (R) at 97%, followed by Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) at 3%.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte (R) | 97% | +0.7 pts | −0.3 pts | $67k |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) | 3% | +0.2 pts | +0.2 pts | $102k |
A price of 97% means traders pay about $0.97 for a “Jay Obernolte (R)” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) · No | $35k | – |
| 0x360d…ca64 | Jay Obernolte (R) · Yes | $17k | +$2k |
| Gaditima | Jay Obernolte (R) · Yes | $9k | +$1k |
| Votei14Voude22 | Jay Obernolte (R) · Yes | $6k | +$498 |
| 0xc8b9…b836 | Jay Obernolte (R) · Yes | $3k | +$290 |
| fbet | Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) · No | $3k | +$20 |
| 0x1bc3…dc6e | Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) · No | $2k | +$438 |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) · No | $1k | +$106 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.