The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Mary Peltola (D) at 98%, followed by Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) at 1%.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) moved the most this week: 26% to 1% (−25.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 98% | +0.2 pts | +24.7 pts | $3.5M |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) | 1% | −0.7 pts | −25.3 pts | $2.0M |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a “Mary Peltola (D)” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) · No | $543k | – |
| LulaVaiPerder | Mary Peltola (D) · Yes | $136k | +$6k |
| Contestable-Parfait | Mary Peltola (D) · Yes | $104k | +$9k |
| 0x4488…e319 | Mary Peltola (D) · Yes | $101k | +$339 |
| Contestable-Parfait | Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) · No | $98k | +$12k |
| Trump2028 | Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) · No | $96k | +$476 |
| Trump2028 | Mary Peltola (D) · Yes | $78k | −$72 |
| 0x0c0e…434e | Mary Peltola (D) · Yes | $73k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.