The deadline passed on 3 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 98% chance for “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections”, up from 8% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 20% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | −0.2 pts | +90.8 pts | $311k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contestable-Parfait | Yes | $38k | +$5k |
| Melody626 | Yes | $27k | +$5k |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | $17k | +$15k |
| ImJustKen | Yes | $10k | +$2k |
| seal7 | Yes | $7k | +$5k |
| SaylorMoon | Yes | $7k | +$2k |
| GoriIIa | Yes | $6k | +$173 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | $4k | +$384 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.